652
FXUS01 KWBC 040812
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 AM EST MON MAR 04 2024
VALID 12Z MON MAR 04 2024 - 12Z WED MAR 06 2024
...INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY, AND THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY...
...ANOTHER COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST TO BRING A NEW ROUND OF RAIN
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...
...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST
WITH ADDITIONAL VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S.; WILDFIRE THREAT REMAINS ELEVATED MONDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AN ALMOST QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE
EAST. THE STAGNANT PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL MOIST RETURN
FLOW FROM THE GULF TODAY THAT WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COMPARED TO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY BY
MONDAY NIGHT. SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
GREATER MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST MAY LEAD
TO SOME MORE INTENSE DOWNPOURS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. A
RELATIVELY GREATER THREAT FOR A FEW MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF REPEATED, BACK-BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXISTS, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/5) HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE FASTER EASTWARD PROGRESS BY TUESDAY, BRINGING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
SOUTHEAST. THE CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATTERN FOR MONDAY, WITH MORE MODERATE RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AND A GREATER CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AND AN
ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AS
STORMS LINGER. TO THE EAST, ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN/BETTER ORGANIZE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
MONDAY, BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY AND NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. SOME
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY.
AN ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAM AND ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION, MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN
SIERRA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE SPREADING INLAND WILL HELP ENHANCE
SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY AS WELL, PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN
IDAHO INTO WESTERN WYOMING. SNOWFALL WILL ALSO LINGER INTO THE
NORTHERN CASCADES AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE INFLUX OF GREATER
MOISTURE. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS, PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OREGON IN
PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A FEW INCHES FOR INLAND LOWER
ELEVATION/VALLEY LOCATIONS AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD AND SNOW
LEVELS LOWER. SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER.
WIDESPREAD MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, SPRING-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. TO START THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES OF 25-35 DEGREES WILL FOCUS ON THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, THOUGH STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.
FORECAST HIGHS RANGE IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PERSISTENTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY LEE
TROUGHING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES
ELEVATED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACCORDING TO
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. ALONG THE
EAST COAST, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN THE 40S AND 50S
FOR NEW ENGLAND, 50S AND 60S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND 70S TO LOW
80S FOR THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA. IN THE WEST, HIGHS WILL REMAIN
COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE, RANGING FROM THE 30S AND 40S IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, 50S IN
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, 60S IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND 60S
AND 70S INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE COLDEST SPOT IN THE COUNTRY
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, WHERE HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
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