933
FXCA20 KWBC 041242
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
741 AM EST MON MAR 04 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 04/12UTC:
A LARGE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THERE IS A SFC TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND COULD
APPROACH PR/USVI ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL WINDS TO
SHIFT FROM ENE TODAY TO EASTERLY ON TUESDAY...THEN SHIFTING TO ESE
LATER ON WEDNESDAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL ALSO FLUCTUATE AS DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL BY THIS EVENING...THOUGH
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS THE SFC TROUGH APPROACHES...AND MOISTURE
WILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. A BROAD MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY...PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK. THE UPPER LEVELS WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TO
THE EAST AND NORTHWEST OF PR/USVI TODAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPS BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
OVER HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY...PASSING ACROSS PR/USVI ON THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS AND WINDS WILL
FAVOR AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK. THAT SAID...THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BUT THE
GLOBAL MODEL RAINFALL SOLUTIONS DO NOT SUGGEST VERY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAIN...HOWEVER. LOCALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOONS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
OVER PR...THOUGH THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER PR WOULD BE
HIGHER FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONSIDERING THE GENERAL WIND FLOW AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE
OVERALL RAINFALL PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEK WOULD BE FAIRLY
TYPICAL. TRADE WIND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFFECTING NORTH AND EASTERN PR AS WELL AS THE USVI...WITH THEN THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION GENERALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PR...DEPENDING ON THE GENERAL WIND FLOW THAT DAY AND WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO RELIABLY
AFFECT NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THAT SAID...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
RELATIVELY LOW DAILY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...NO MORE THAN 0.25 INCHES
PER DAY ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN PR AS WELL AS THE USVI. THE
AMOUNTS WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD SURPASS 0.50 INCHES AT
TIMES. THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 0.75 TO ONE
INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PR. BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50
INCHES ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN PR AS WELL AS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN USVI. SOUTH CENTRAL PR AND ST
CROIX ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE GENERALLY LITTLE RAINFALL...WITH
UNDER 0.25 INCHES IN THE 5-DAY FORECAST. THE LOCATION WITH HIGHEST
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR...WITH AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 5-DAY
FORECAST.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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