747
FXCA20 KWBC 041809
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
108 PM EST MON MAR 04 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 04 MAR 2024 AT 1700 UTC: A STRONG CONVERGENT
PULSE OF THE MJO IS FORECAST OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON
MONDAY...FAVORING DRYER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...A POTENT MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EXTENDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC...INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...HISPANIOLA...AND COLOMBIA.
THIS IS IN TURN FAVORING TRADE WIND CAP INVERSIONS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN AND MEXICO...AND DRYER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
FURTHER EAST...A KELVIN WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND MOST OF NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...WHICH WILL BE
FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION WHERE CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
FAVORABLE. THE CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST REGION...AND THE KELVIN WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO EFFECT NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA UNTIL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TROUGHS IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER THAT IS FAVORING SOME SHOWERS IN
MEXICO...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF
THE UNITED STATES IS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA....WHILE A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXTENDING INTO THE BAHAMAS. TRADE WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...WHILE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. THEY CAN ALSO EXPECT SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER.
SIMILARLY...A MOIST PLUME OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ON TUESDAY...LESS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES
OVER THE REGION...WHILE MOIST PLUMES IN THE TRADES ARE BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER. THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE
CENTRAL GUATEMALA...SOUTHEAST COSTA RICA AND NORTHEAST PANAMA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM...SOUTHERN HAITI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM.
THE NORTHER BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK
OF SQUALLY WEATHER...WHILE NORTHERN CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...REACHES THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS AND JUST NORTH OF CUBA. THIS TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER IN NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. CENTRAL CUBA COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. SOUTHERN
HAITI...PUERTO RICO...AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM. THE REST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT EXTENDS
INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICA...WHERE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED OVER AMAPA...AND NORTHERN PARA ON MONDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE WILL FAVOR LOW TO MODERATE
AMOUNTS IN THE REGION...HOWEVER...ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...TROUGHS WITH
INCREASED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ADVECTED WEST THROUGH THE TRADE WINDS. WESTERLIES INTO WEST
ECUADOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE GUAYAQUIL REGION IN ECUADOR AND FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO CENTRAL ECUADOR...AND
NORTHERN PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM WEST FRENCH GUIANA...AMAPA...AND NORTHERN PARA.
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...AND NORTHWEST RORAIMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA
AND NORTHERN PERU WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE AREA...WHILE
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. THE GUAYAQUIL
REGION IN ECUADOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEEING INTERACTIONS WITH
THE ITCZ AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FAVORING MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN
THE EAST...SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS EXPECTED. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE...WHILE OVER SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHER PERU A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT DEVELOPS...FAVORING UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER
THE REGION DUE TO THEIR INTERACTION. SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHERN
PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THE GUAYAQUIL REGION IN ECUADOR
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-60MM. OTHER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND RORAIMA...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS. AMAPA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AS WELL. ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS EXPECTED
OVER THE REGION.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page