856
FXCA20 KWBC 051910
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 PM EST TUE MAR 05 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 05 MAR 2024 AT 1800 UTC: A POTENT CONVERGENT
PHASE OF THE MJO IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST REGION DURING THE
NEXT DAY. OVER EASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...AN ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE
IS MOVING FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ON TUESDAY. WITH THE
KELVIN WAVE MOVING AWAY AND THE CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE
MJO...THESE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED OVER TH NEXT THREE DAYS.
OVER MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE WEST CARIBBEAN BASIN...A
POTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE AND PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAVORING
TRADE WIND INVERSION CAPS THROUGHOUT THE REGION...AND HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS QUICKLY MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH IS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES ON
TUESDAY. AS THE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH...MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND FAVORING
SHOWERS IN THE REGION. ASSISTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SQUALLY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...NORTHERN CUBA
CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO MOISTURE
ADVECTED IN THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF UNITED STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
STATES. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. CENTRAL
CUBA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS...DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION TOTALS. THE BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15MM...STILL WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER.
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL BRASIL FROM THE EAST...INTERACTING WITH THE
BOLIVIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER BOLIVIA...AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN PERU. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
IS FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AMAZONAS-BRASIL...NORTHERN
PERU...AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY. SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO
NORTHEAST PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ADDITIONALLY...THE
GUAYAQUIL REGION IN ECUADOR IS SEEING WESTERLIES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE ITCZ...FAVORING MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CONTINENT...EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONIC SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING WEST OVER NORTHERN
BRASIL. WHILE THE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION....SOUTHERN VENEZUELA INTO EAST AMAZONAS AND WEST PARA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. INTERACTIONS WITH THE BOLIVIAN HIGH WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM OVER NORTHEAST PERU. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GUAYAQUIL REGION OF ECUADOR. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...EAST ECUADOR...AND NORTHWEST PERU...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. IN EAST AMAPA...INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG THE
ITCZ WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN PERU...WHERE IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH THE STRENGTHENING BOLIVIAN HIGH...AND FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE REGION. FROM SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO NORTHEAST PERU...AND
INTO EAST ECUADOR EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...AMAZONAS-BRASIL...RORAIMA AND PARA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ARE FORECAST IN
THE REGION. IN AMAPA...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
SIMILAR INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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