898
FXUS01 KWBC 060814
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 AM EST WED MAR 06 2024
VALID 12Z WED MAR 06 2024 - 12Z FRI MAR 08 2024
...WET WEDNESDAY IN STORE FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE
EAST COAST, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RISK OF SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...
...STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AS CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
WEST...
WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN U.S. FROM
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST IN A COMPLEX
PATTERN. ONGOING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY, EXPECTED TO MAKE LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY
AND EVENTUALLY STALLING ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE, A
COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGIES AND ASSOCIATED WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG
THE EAST COAST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. A COUPLE
AXIS OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE EAST
OF THE LOW PRESSURE WAVES WHERE ENHANCED VERY MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW
FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL EXIST. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/4) ARE OUTLOOKED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AND
FOR THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, FROM NEW
JERSEY NORTHEASTWARD TO FAR SOUTHWEST MAINE. AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2", LOCALLY 3", MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT/LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE
COAST OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN CHANCES
LINGERING LONGEST INTO THE DAY THURSDAY IN NEW ENGLAND. SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX IN FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AS
COLDER AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO MAINE.
IN THE WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND EVENTUALLY INLAND,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHICH
MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS GIVEN THE VERY
SENSITIVE CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AFTER RECENT
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, BUT WILL
COME TO AN END AS MOISTURE FLOW FOLLOWS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM
SOUTHWARD. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND
SHOWERS FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM AS IT
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. TO
THE NORTH, AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP TO DEEPEN/ORGANIZE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CANADA
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, BUT MORE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW IN THE
COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM TRACK ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. FURTHER SOUTH, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE WEST,
HELPING TO INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE ROCKIES AND
ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY.
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW
SPREADS NORTHWARD, ESPECIALLY INTO THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY LEAD TO SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTING
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST/CENTRAL TEXAS IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND AN
ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. FINALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MODERATE
HIGHER ELEVATION/MOUNTAIN SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES,
WITH SOME LIGHTER SNOW MIXING IN FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
A FAMILIAR PATTERN OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE UPWARDS OF 10-20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. FORECAST
HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 40S AND 50S FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND; THE 50S AND 60S FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC; AND THE 60S AND 70S FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. A POCKET OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE
20S AND 30S BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS DROPPING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY AFTER A WARMER WEDNESDAY. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE WEST
RANGE FROM THE 30S AND 40S IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN, THE 50S AND 60S IN CALIFORNIA, AND THE 60S AND 70S IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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