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FXCA20 KWBC 061153
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
653 AM EST WED MAR 06 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 06/12UTC:
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. A SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY
EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WILL SHIFT TO A ESE DIRECTION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND SWILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A NE
DIRECTION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
LOWER END OF THE NORMAL RANGE TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY
ON THURSDAY...REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE COULD PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT
SAID...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL PEAK ON
THURSDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER. THEREFORE LATE
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE COLUMN.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...POSSIBLY REACHING SPEEDS
NEAR 80KT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET MOVES OVER THE AREA. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA
EARLY THURSDAY AND OVER PR/USVI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS AND WINDS WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. THE MOST
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE LATE
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE GLOBAL MODEL RAINFALL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL
NOT SUGGESTING VERY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY IN AREAS
OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER PR...WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PR. BETWEEN 0.25 AND
0.50 INCHES ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PR
AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN USVI...WHILE ST
CROIX IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE UNDER 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN. THE
LOCATION WITH HIGHEST 5-DAY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...WITH JUST UNDER 2 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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