296
FXCA20 KWBC 061909
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 PM EST WED MAR 06 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 MAR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: A POTENT CONVERGENT
PHASE OF THE MJO IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE FORECAST FOR THE REGION WILL TEND TOWARDS THE DRIER
SIDE...WITH EXCEPTION OF NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...WHERE CONVERGENCE
IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ON WEDNESDAY...A POTENT MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED
WEST OF JALISCO AND COLIMA...EXTENDING OVER MEXICO...CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND THE WEST CARIBBEAN BASIN...AND IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE AND PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAVORING TRADE WIND INVERSION CAPS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION...AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
QUICKLY MOVING THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY
A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH MODERATE RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. OTHER
AREAS OF NORTHERN BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER...WHILE CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EAST AND
INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LIMIT DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE AREA DUE TO THE TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP IT WILL
FAVOR OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...CUBA...HISPANIOLA...THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND SOUTH COSTA RICA/WEST PANAMA. ON
FRIDAY...HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND SOUTH COSTA RICA/WEST PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15MM.
OVER NORTHERN PERU AND ECUADOR...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER
LEVELS IS PASSING OVER THE REGION...FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTH COLOMBIA...EAST ECUADOR...AND NORTH PERU CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ALONG THE ITCZ IN NORTHERN
AMAZONAS-BRASIL..EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...AS THE PERIPHERY OF
THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN EAST AMAPA ALONG THE ITCZ. ON
THURSDAY...TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ AND INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN THE NORTHERN BRASIL...INTO SOUTH COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA...AND
NORTH PERU/EAST ECUADOR. THE GUAYAQUIL REGION IN ECUADOR WILL SEE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE WESTERLIES AND ITCZ
INTERACTION...AND THEY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SOUTH
COLOMBIA...EAST ECUADOR...NORTH PERU...AND AMAPA/EAST PARA...CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. WEST PARA AND AMAZONAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA DUE
TO FAVORABLE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE TRADE WINDS. ON
FRIDAY...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
DEVELOP OVER NORTH PERU/ECUADOR...AND AMAPA. THEY WILL FAVOR DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THESE REGIONS...AS TROUGHS ARE ALSO MAKING THEIR
WAY WEST. WEST ECUADOR...NORTHWEST PERU...SOUTHEAST
COLOMBIA...INTO PORTIONS OF AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND NORTHEAST
PERU...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. EAST AMAZONAS...PARA...AND
AMAPA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. WEST COLOMBIA IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SCATTERED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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