863
FXUS01 KWBC 070801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST THU MAR 07 2024
VALID 12Z THU MAR 07 2024 - 12Z SAT MAR 09 2024
...HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND SNOW OVER NORTHERN MAINE...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON
FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM EVOLVING OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST, A RISK OF
WILDFIRES IN THE HIGH PLAINS, AND SOME AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEAN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO
DEEPEN/ORGANIZE A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SYSTEM
PLAINS, FURTHER REINFORCED BY A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. SOUTHERLY MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARPENING
DRYLINE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
MORNING. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL BRING THE
THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS WITH SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL 2/5) FOR
SOME INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL, ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. IN ADDITION, THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, AND THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
STORMS OVER DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING HAS
PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR SOME
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR URBAN
AREAS IN THE DFW METROPLEX. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF
THE DRYLINE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHICH WHEN COMBINED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS HAS PROMPTED A CRITICAL
RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FORM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
TO THE NORTHWEST, A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTHWARD
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO. IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN A ROUND OF SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BRINGING HEAVY SNOW
RATES OF 1-2"+ PER HOUR AND SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR THE HIGH PLAINS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY, WITH AN EXPANDING AREA
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE MIDWEST, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST. A RENEWED ROUND OF MORE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD WITH A WARM FRONT FROM THE
GULF WILL BRING A HIGHER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COMPARED TO THURSDAY, WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CLUSTERS
OF STORMS WILL BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 3/4) HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO
NORTHERN GEORGIA WHERE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM THE NIGHT
BEFORE WILL FURTHER HELP INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR URBAN AREAS
IN THE GREATER ATLANTA REGION. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
ALSO EXPECTED, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, THE NOTED PACIFIC SYSTEM EVENTUALLY REACHING THE PLAINS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
GREAT BASIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DESERTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE REGION, WITH THE POTENTIAL A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN.
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FURTHER NORTH INTO MAINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE IN SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FINALLY,
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITAITON
CHANCES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AND 50S FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND;
THE 50S AND 60S FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC; AND THE 60S AND 70S
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST. PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
70S AND 80S IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH
WITH THE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS DROPPING TO THE 40S AND 50S FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RECOVER
FRIDAY FOLLOWING A CHILLY DAY THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
LOW 30S RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN, 50S AND 60S FOR CALIFORNIA,
AND 60S AND 70S INTO THE SOUTHWEST.
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