560
FXUS01 KWBC 070817
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 AM EST THU MAR 07 2024
VALID 12Z THU MAR 07 2024 - 12Z SAT MAR 09 2024
...STORM SYSTEM TO BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY, SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY...
...AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY...
...ANOTHER CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND SPRING-LIKE FOR THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST...
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM EVOLVING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST, A RISK OF
WILDFIRES IN THE HIGH PLAINS, AND SOME AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER
THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO
DEEPEN/ORGANIZE A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, FURTHER REINFORCED BY A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. SOUTHERLY MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARPENING
DRYLINE WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING.
INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH SLIGHT RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SOME
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. IN ADDITION, THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, AND THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS
EVOLVING DOWNSTREAM OVER NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY EVENING HAS PROMPTED
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR SOME SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR URBAN AREAS IN THE
DFW METROPLEX. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WEST OF THE DRYLINE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS HAS PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FORM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. TO THE
NORTHWEST, A SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTHWARD WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO. IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN A ROUND OF SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA BRINGING HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1-2"+
PER HOUR AND SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW, WITH WINTER
STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT. THE SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY, WITH AN EXPANDING AREA
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INTO THE MIDWEST, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST. A REINFORCING INFLUX OF MORE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD WITH A WARM FRONT FROM THE
GULF WILL BRING A HIGHER THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COMPARED TO THURSDAY, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT CLUSTERS
OF STORMS WILL BRING REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 3/4) HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FROM EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO
NORTHERN GEORGIA WHERE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM THE NIGHT
BEFORE WILL FURTHER HELP INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR URBAN AREAS
IN THE GREATER ATLANTA REGION. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
TEXAS/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, THE NOTED PACIFIC SYSTEM EVENTUALLY REACHING THE PLAINS
WILL FIRST MOVE EASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DESERTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION, WITH THE POTENTIAL A BIT OF SNOW MAY
MIX IN. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH INTO MAINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE IN SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
FINALLY, AN APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURE WISE, HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S AND 50S IN THE
UPPER MIDWEST EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND; THE
50S AND 60S FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC; AND THE 60S AND 70S FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST. PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND 70S AND 80S IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH WITH THE CENTRAL U.S.
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO THE 40S AND 50S FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RECOVER FRIDAY FOLLOWING A CHILLY DAY
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S RISING INTO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE WEST, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN, 50S AND 60S FOR CALIFORNIA, AND 60S AND 70S INTO THE
SOUTHWEST.
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