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FXCA20 KWBC 071247
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
747 AM EST THU MAR 07 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 07/12UTC:
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. A SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SFC WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL HAVE AN ESE DIRECTION THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT TO A NE DIRECTION LATE ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ONWARD. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING AT AROUND 1.7
INCHES. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...THOUGH NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE
WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL ALSO PEAK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING THEREAFTER.
THEREFORE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE COLUMN EXPECTED OUT OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...BUT A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
AND PROMOTE SOME STABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS THEREAFTER...AS
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT OVER PR/USVI BY
EARLY FRIDAY...BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES
IN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS FAVOR AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
TODAY...BUT WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THE MID LEVELS COULD BE PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THEREFORE THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODEL RAINFALL
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT SUGGESTING VERY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES HAVE A SMALL
SECTION OF NORTHWESTERN PR OBSERVING OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND THE
TROUGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR...THE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...DURATION...AND COVERAGE WOULD BE LIMITED AS THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE WOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE TO PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR ONE INCH OF RAIN
ACROSS EAST TO NORTHEAST PR. BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PR.
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI ARE GENERALLY FORECAST BETWEEN 0.10
AND 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOCATION WITH
HIGHEST 5-DAY RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF PR...WITH OVER 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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