733
FXCA20 KWBC 071735
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1234 PM EST THU MAR 07 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 MAR 2024 AT 1730 UTC: A POTENT CONVERGENT
PHASE OF THE MJO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST REGION
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A WEAK KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER...THE CHANCES OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS SMALL AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIPITATION
ARE NOT AVAILABLE. THE KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
PROPAGATING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BY
SATURDAY...YET...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT.
ON THURSDAY...MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE
COUNTRY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST UNITED STATES. IN THE MID LEVELS...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION...WHERE THE NORTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15MM. TO THE EAST...A DEEP TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES AND EXTENDS INTO HISPANIOLA AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS...INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. WINDS AND
MOISTURE FROM THE WEST WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTH
BAHAMAS...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. OTHER AREAS THAT
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM ARE CUBA...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND COSTA
RICA/PANAMA. ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHERE THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
BAHAMAS. A DRIER DAY IS EXPECTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WHERE
MAXIMA LESS THAN 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA...THE LESSER
ANTILLES...GUATEMALA...AND COSTA RICA. ON SATURDAY...A SURFACE
FRONT THAT HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES REACHES
THE SOUTHEAST US AND EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...AND INTO THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. THE PASSING OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. A
TROUGH TO THE EAST OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO
GUATEMALA...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND
CENTRAL CHIAPAS. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE HAS DEVELOPED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND
THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL ANTILLES...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO
RICO/VI. COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IN
AMAPA...AND WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL...ARE LOCATED ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BRASIL. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE OVER THE
REGION...EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ABOVE
55MM. THE LOCATION OF THE ITCZ OVER NORTH BRASIL...AND THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE ITCZ OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND INTO WEST ECUADOR...CAN CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...NORTH PERU...AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND ECUADOR
WILL BE THE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
ON FRIDAY...THE ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO
VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND NORTH PERU...FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION.
BY SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...HOWEVER THEY DECREASE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRASIL
DUE TO THE EASTERN PROPAGATION OF THE KELVIN WAVE AWAY FROM
NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA...AND AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE GUAYAQUIL
REGION OF ECUADOR...AND IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...NORTHEAST
PERU...AND WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN AMAPA
AND EAST PARA. WHILE SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEST COLOMBIA...INTO SOUTH VENEZUELA...EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL...INTO
WEST PARA. ON SATURDAY...NORTHWEST ECUADOR...CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...INTO EAST ECUADOR...AND NORTH-CENTRAL PERU CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA...NORTHEAST PERU...AND WEST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. AMAPA...AND EAST
PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. WEST COLOMBIA IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...SOUTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA...INTO
EAST ECUADOR...AND NORTH CENTRAL PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
40-80MM...WHILE AMAZONAS-BRASIL IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
AMAPA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE PARA...AND WEST ECUADOR
ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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