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FXCA20 KWBC 081238
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
738 AM EST FRI MAR 08 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 08/12UTC:
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SFC WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL HAVE AN ESE
DIRECTION THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRIEFLY SHIFT TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING AT AROUND 1.7 INCHES THIS EVENING.
MOISTURE WILL START TO DECREASE GRADUALLY LATE SATURDAY ONWARD.
NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE WOULD BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AND WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE STARTING ON SATURDAY...BECOMING BELOW NORMAL BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AS A
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THAT
SAID...A WEAK AND TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS SUGGESTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS
LOCALLY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE IN OVER PR/USVI TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING...SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PR...BUT THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...DURATION...AND COVERAGE WOULD BE
LIMITED AS THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF RAIN OR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 0.50 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS EAST TO NORTHEAST PR. BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PR...WITH SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY OBSERVING LITTLE TO NO RAIN. VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND
THE USVI ARE GENERALLY FORECAST BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOCATION WITH HIGHEST 5-DAY
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
PR...WITH NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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