189
FXCA20 KWBC 081831
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
131 PM EST FRI MAR 08 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 MAR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: THE CONVERGENT PHASE OF
THE MJO CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST REGION ON FRIDAY. A FAST
MOVING KELVIN WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES...INTO MEXICO...AND NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTH SOUTH AMERICA
INTO THE WEEKEND...AND EXIT THE REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
OVER THE MAJORITY OF MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE REST OF
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. WHILE THE KELVIN WAVE PROPAGATING OVER THE
NORTH OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND FAVORABLE DEEP CONVECTION...WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...AND INTO
NEW MEXICO. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE POTENT MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH MAXIMA BELOW 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN
HISPANIOLA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...JAMAICA...CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...AND COSTA RICA...DUE TO AVAILABLE MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADE WINDS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO EASTERN MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OF THE UNITED STATES BY
SATURDAY EVENING. WITH INCREASED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...VERACRUZ...AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...ON
SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH MAXIMA BELOW 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS...COSTA RICA...PUERTO RICO/VI...AND THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. BY SUNDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE BAHAMAS...NORTH OF
CUBA...AND BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO TABASCO/VERACRUZ...AND THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CHIAPAS...SOUTH VERACRUZ...AND EAST OAXACA.
MAXIMA BELOW 15MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTH OAXACA...CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...AND WEST YUCATAN/EAST CAMPECHE. MAXIMA BELOW 15MM ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...NORTH SINALOA/SOUTH
CHIHUAHUA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND EAST COSTA RICA AND
NORTHWEST PANAMA.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO SEE MORE PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REGION WILL SEE VARIOUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN
HIGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN BRASIL...SOUTH
BOLIVIA...AND PARAGUAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
INTERACTIONS WITH THE BOLIVIAN HIGH WITH OTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE DEEP CONVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN
BRASIL...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND INTO EAST
ECUADOR AND NORTH PERU OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...TROUGHS PROPAGATING WEST ALONG THE ITCZ ARE
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.THE ATMOSPHERIC
KELVIN WAVE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION AS IT PROPAGATES OVER THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ON
FRIDAY...SOUTH COLOMBIA...SOUTH VENEZUELA...NORTH
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...EAST ECUADOR...AND NORTH-CENTRAL PERU CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. AMAPA...AND NORTH PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. WEST COLOMBIA...AND WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...SOUTH COLOMBIA...EAST ECUADOR...AND NORTH
PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. PARA...AMAPA...WEST COLOMBIA..AND WEST
ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SUNDAY...AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
REGION...EXPECT LOWER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SOUTH-CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...EAST ECUADOR...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH PERU CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. NORTHEAST PERU...SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA...AND
AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. AMAPA...NORTHWEST
PARA...AND WEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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