831
FXCA20 KWBC 111223
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
823 AM EDT MON MAR 11 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 11/12UTC:
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND
MOVE EAST EARLY THIS WEEK. A SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC HAS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND BECOME STATIONARY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT REMAINS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PR/USVI ALONG
21N. THE STATIONARY FRONT COULD REMAIN ALONG 21N INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORKWEEK...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE ESE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY...EXTENDING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK AND
PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE...PROMOTING STABILITY THROUGH
THE WEEK.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT TRADE WIND INVERSION FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK NEAR THE 800-900 HPA LEVEL. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK. THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORKWEEK COULD BE DRIER THAN THE LATTER...AS THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES COULD BE BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES FROM TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
HOWEVER...AS THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF PR/USVI ALLOWS SOME
MOISTURE TO STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD BE IN THE 1.2 TO
1.4 INCH RANGE OVER PR/USVI...WHICH IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE. THE
MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL MOST OF
THE WEEK...WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL...BUT THERE WILL BE MORE MOISTURE FLUCTUATION IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAT MAY NOT BE REACHING THE MID LEVELS.
CONSIDERING THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THE STABLE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...WITH THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND INVERSION EXPECTED...THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PR/USVI IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED THIS
WEEK...WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOONS...BUT THE CONVECTION WOULD BE SHALLOW AND THE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN ARE FORECAST TO BE MODEST...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN EACH DAY TOTALING ABOUT 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. THE 5-DAY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES
ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST PR...NEAR 0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR...WHILE SOME AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL
NORTHWESTERN PR ARE FORECAST LITTLE TO NO RAIN. WESTERN INTERIOR
TO WESTERN PR IS FORECAST NEAR AN INCH OR LESS OF RAIN OVER THE
5-DAY PERIOD...AND THE USVI ARE FORECAST 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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