996
FXCA20 KWBC 111639
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1238 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 11 MAR 2024 AT 1700 UTC: A POTENT POLAR TROUGH
IS EXITING THE EAST COAST OF CANADA ON MONDAY...AND IS SUSTAINING
A LONG SURFACE FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. BY
MONDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ALONG THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...INAGUA...CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND CHIAPAS. BY TUESDAY EVENING EXPECT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS/INAGUA...NORTH CUBA...SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ALONG 22N 60W...TURKS
AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...LOSING BAROCLINICITY IN AREAS
TO THE WEST. INITIALLY THIS WILL FAVOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...WHILE IN CENTRAL CUBA IT FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
THE BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...WHILE IN NORTHWEST CUBA EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE BAHAMAS/TURKS
AND CAICOS...NORTHWEST CUBA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM.
TO THE SOUTHEAST...A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES. BY MONDAY EVENING EXPECT THE SYSTEM ALONG 15N 55W
INTO AREAS NORTH OF BARBADOS. BY TUESDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ALONG
15N 58W INTO MARTINIQUE. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ALONG 16N
55W INTO GUADELOUPE/DOMINICA. UNDER THE STABILIZING AND DRYING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...EXPECT VERY LIMITED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON MONDAY...WHEN MAXIMA IS EXPECTED UNDER 10MM/DAY. ON
TUESDAY...A REORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASE IN MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. ON WEDNESDAY THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15MM OVER THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES.
DEEP CONVECTION IS INTENSIFYING ALONG THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
PACIFIC ITCZ. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WESTERN COLOMBIA. ALTHOUGH THE PANAMA LOW-LEVEL JET
IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT...DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
ORGANIZE ALONG THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH INTO NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON MONDAY...INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF
20-45MM ON TUESDAY. IN THE MAGDALENA MEDIO/ANDEAN REGION OF
CENTRAL COLOMBIA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON MONDAY DECREASING
TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MAXIMA
INCREASES TO 30-60MM IN BOTH AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS...WITH THE
PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS.
ITCZ/NET AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTIONS IN NORTHERN BRASIL WILL
FAVOR PRECIPTIATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. GENERALISZED MAXIMA
OF 15-35MM ARE EXPECTED FROM AMAPA...TO WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...AN INCRESE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER AMAPA
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE PARA AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN
EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...AMAPA AND
PARA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE AMAZONAS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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