430
FXUS01 KWBC 112001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2024
VALID 00Z TUE MAR 12 2024 - 00Z THU MAR 14 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH LOWER-ELEVATION
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW THROUGH MID-WEEK...
...AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...
...ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL WEAKEN
AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD, TO BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER IMPULSE TO
REACH THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN, ALONG WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6-12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TOTALS OVER A FOOT LIKELY FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS THE STORM SYSTEM ADVANCES SOUTH AND EAST.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE PROMPTED CRITICAL RISK
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND A PORTION OF EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH THE
REST OF MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON TUESDAY, ADVANCING EASTWARD WITH TIME. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEPARTURE OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL LOWERING OF GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, ALLOWING WINDS TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD. THE GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL
HIGHS WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE A FEW RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
BE BROKEN, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS LIKELY TO
BE LOWER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST, ROUGHLY 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE MID-MARCH AVERAGES. WITH
THE WARMER WEATHER WILL COME THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A DRYLINE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI ON TUESDAY WITH A BROADER RISK ACROSS SOME OF
THESE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
OTTO
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