988
FXUS01 KWBC 120826
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE MAR 12 2024
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 12 2024 - 12Z THU MAR 14 2024
...ONE MORE DAY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY TAPERS
OFF ON WEDNESDAY...
...MOUNTAIN SNOWS SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
LATER ON WEDNESDAY AS RAIN MAY CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW IN THE
NEARBY HIGH PLAINS...
...ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...
A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE
U.S. WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN RECENT DAYS PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FINAL IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC
FRONTS AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PUSH ONSHORE INTO THE WEST
COAST TODAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER-ELEVATION
RAIN WITH ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO FEET OF NEW SNOW ALONG THE CASCADES.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN
U.S. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AREAS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL HAVE
A CHANCE TO GRADUALLY DRY OUT ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE MAIN
BATCH OF MOISTURE WILL PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND IN THE FORM OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE INTERACTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ORGANIZE AND FOCUS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER
CENTRAL COLORADO BY EARLY ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING, SNOW
COULD BE FALLING IN EARNEST OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN INTO THE
FRONT RANGE AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS OF CENTRAL COLORADO.
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE THE DANGER OF WILDFIRES
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A MORE
SOUTHWARD FOCUS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WESTERN TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE PLAINS STATES WILL
INITIALLY LIMIT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY INTO
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES, INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE AN AREA
OF ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER THE VICINITY OF NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE STORM CENTER PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME OF THE
ENHANCED RAINFALL COULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH SEVERE WEATHER. IN
ADDITION, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
ENHANCED RAINFALL WOULD CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW EARLY ON THURSDAY
IF ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THE STORM CENTER.
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., THE DEPARTURE OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW THE GUSTY
WINDS TO MODERATE FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FOR
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT OVERALL IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALLOWING WINDS TO RETURN
FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD. THE
GREATEST DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL HIGHS WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE A FEW
RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BE BROKEN, BUT THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS LIKELY TO BE LOWER ON TODAY COMPARED TO
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST, ROUGHLY 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE MID-MARCH AVERAGES. WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL
COME THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A DRYLINE
FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI ON TUESDAY WITH
A BROADER RISK ACROSS SOME OF THESE SAME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
AGAIN, THE PREVAILING DRY ENVIRONMENT WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE STORMS.
KONG/OTTO
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