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FXCA20 KWBC 121137
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
736 AM EDT TUE MAR 12 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 12/12UTC:
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER...WITH BRIEF ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE CURRENT
AND FORECAST SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WOULD PROMOTE
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THERE IS A SFC
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THAT HAS A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY
ALONG 21N TO THE NORTH OF PR/USVI...WHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
IT WEAKENS. BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST
TO HAVE LOST ITS DEFINITION. A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC TODAY...EXTENDING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY AND PREVAILING FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...PROMOTING STABILITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT TRADE WIND INVERSION FOR
MOST OF THIS WEEK NEAR THE 800-900 HPA LEVEL...BECOMING WEAK BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
COULD BE BETWEEN 0.9 AND 1.2 INCHES. HOWEVER...AS THE STATIONARY
FRONT NORTH OF PR/USVI DISSIPATES...SOME MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER
PR/USVI ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW FAVORS
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA LATE THURSDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING BRIEFLY AT AROUND 1.6
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THAT BRIEF
PEAK IN MOISTURE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.2 TO 1.5
INCHES FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHICH IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE.
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 700 - 500 MB LAYER SHOW A
BRIEF PEAK IN MOISTURE LATER ON THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT NOT AS
PRONOUNCED AS THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...SUGGESTING THAT THE
PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL BE MOSTLY KEPT TO THE LOWER LEVELS.
CONSIDERING THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND STABILITY IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE PERSISTENT TRADE WIND INVERSION
EXPECTED...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PR/USVI IS FORECAST TO BE
LIMITED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART. ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN PR...CONVECTION WOULD BE SHALLOW AND THE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN ARE FORECAST TO BE MODEST. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN EACH
DAY COULD TOTAL NEAR 0.25 INCHES. THE 5-DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0.25 TO 0.60 INCHES ACROSS EAST AND
NORTHEAST PR...NEAR 0.10 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR...WHILE SOME AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PR ARE FORECAST
LITTLE TO NO RAIN. WESTERN INTERIOR TO WESTERN PR IS FORECAST MAX
VALUES NEAR 0.80 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE 5-DAY PERIOD...AND THE
USVI ARE FORECAST 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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