595
FXCA20 KWBC 121807
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 12 MAR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND BECOMES STATIONARY NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO...AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IT EXTENDS INTO TURKS
AND CAICOS...NORTH OF CUBA...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS WEAKENING WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
POTENT LOW TO MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...ASSISTED BY THE ZONAL FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. DUE TO THE
LOW LEVELS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION...AS WELL AS THE
CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO ON TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT VALUES OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...OR THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...WHILE THE REST
OF THE REGION CAN EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. BY
THURSDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR...EXCEPT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF A KELVIN WAVE WILL
FAVOR PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT WILL ENHANCE A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING TO NORTH BAJA
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...EAST COSTA RICA/NORTH
PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM DUE TO THE MOISTURE CONVERGING
ALONG THE AREA THROUGH THE MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
COAHUILA/NUEVO LEON...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM. THE REST OF THE REGION CAN EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA BELOW
10MM. ON WEDNESDAY...FROM SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA...TO EAST
PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WEST
CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON THURSDAY...THE LESSER
ANTILLES...EASTERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA/PANAMA...AND
EAST CHIAPAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ELSEWHERE
IN THE REGION...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 15MM.
DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHEAST
PERU WITH THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATING IN THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ANDEAN REGION IN
COLOMBIA AND PERU WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...AND 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA INTO NORTHERN PERU. TO
THE EAST...INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER DUE TO PROPAGATING
TROUGHS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN AMAPA.
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. ON WEDNESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES WEST INTO AMAZONAS-BRASIL...FAVOR
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AREA. WHILE LOW LEVEL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION...INCREASING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
COLOMBIA...SOUTH VENEZUELA...NORTH PERU...ECUADOR...AND NORTH
BRASIL. IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FROM THE EJE CAFETERO REGION IN COLOMBIA...INTO
NORTH ECUADOR AND PERU...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. WEST
COLOMBIA...SOUTH VENEZUELA...AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHES
NORTHEAST PERU...AND EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...WHILE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE ANDEAN
REGION IN COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND PERU FAVORS PRECIPITATION IN
THE AREA. THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...AND
NORTHWEST ECUADOR...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...INTO EAST ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AMAPA
CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW
LEVEL TROUGH INCREASING AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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