519
FXUS01 KWBC 121956
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT TUE MAR 12 2024
VALID 00Z WED MAR 13 2024 - 00Z FRI MAR 15 2024
...HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS
AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT BASIN
WILL MERGE WITH A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, MOVING TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE WESTERN
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE COASTAL RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND
SNOW OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, GREAT
BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON
WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, THE SIGNIFICANT AND LONG-DURATION WINTER STORM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER, SNOW PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (GREATER THAN 70% CHANCE) FOR
AT LEAST 1 FOOT FOR MOST OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES, THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS, THE FOOTHILLS, AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AND COULD EXCEED 2 FEET ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS (30-50% CHANCE). CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING FOR
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SNOW
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 8 INCHES ARE HIGH (GREATER THAN 70%
CHANCE).
A SECOND PHASE OF THE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT
THE TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES. SNOW PROBABILITIES
FOR 8 INCHES ARE MODERATE TO HIGH (GREATER THAN 50%). LOCALIZED
TOTALS ABOVE A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
HAZARDOUS TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL IS EXPECTED AS HEAVY SNOW AND
INTENSE SNOW RATES AT TIMES (1-2 INCHES PLUS PER HOUR) WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND BEGINNING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOREOVER, ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH
THE EASTERN FRONT, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA.
FURTHERMORE, OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXPAND ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AND EXTEND INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ON THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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