314
FXUS01 KWBC 130831
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT WED MAR 13 2024
VALID 12Z WED MAR 13 2024 - 12Z FRI MAR 15 2024
...HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. IS
GRADUALLY PUSHING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THE INTERACTION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING SOUTHWARD IS SETTING THE
STAGE FOR A LONG-DURATION SNOW EVENT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FIRST BE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
FROM THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY WHEN WET SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE
THE HEAVIEST ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO WHERE A FEW FEET
OF NEW SNOW COULD FALL. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADJACENT
AREAS BUT ONE TO TWO FEET OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE DOWN INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS BOULDER AND DENVER, COLORADO.
HAZARDOUS TO VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL IS EXPECTED AS HEAVY SNOW AND
INTENSE SNOW RATES AT TIMES (1-2 INCHES PLUS PER HOUR) WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND BEGINNING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SECOND PHASE OF THE WINTER STORM WILL THEN IMPACT THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT, AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CLOSES OFF INTO A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW. WAVES OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
IMPACT THE TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES. SNOW
PROBABILITIES FOR 8 INCHES ARE MODERATE TO HIGH (GREATER THAN
50%). LOCALIZED TOTALS ABOVE A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE THE DANGER OF WILDFIRES TO LOCALLY
EXTREME LEVELS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WESTERN TEXAS TODAY.
THE DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE PLAINS STATES WILL INITIALLY LIMIT THE
FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARDS THE MIDWEST, INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
FORECAST TO ORGANIZE AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL ACROSS ARKANSAS
AND NEIGHBORING AREAS THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHEN
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD TENNESSEE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ITSELF WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A
SLIGHT THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH WET SNOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND OVER INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE WINTER STORM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN U.S., MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL ENTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM AND
PLEASANT WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
KONG
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