310
FXCA20 KWBC 131811
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
210 PM EDT WED MAR 13 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 13 MAR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND REACH NORTHWEST MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING.
BY FRIDAY....THE DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE UNDULATION
OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WILL
REACH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
SINCE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE REGION AT THIS
TIME...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. TO
THE EAST...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
AND REACHING TURKS AND CAICOS/SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND THE NORTH OF
CUBA ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
OVERALL...THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE
PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL JETS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA...WILL ADVECT SOME MOISTURE
INTO THESE REGIONS...BUT PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT IN CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
WEDNESDAY...EAST COSTA RICA AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. THE LESSER ANTILLES AND WEST CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM. ON THURSDAY...A COLD SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER NORTH
BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. EAST
CHIAPAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA...FROM EAST NICARAGUA...TO PANAMA...AND
IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS OVER
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO COAHUILA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
COAHUILA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE
WEST REACHES NORTH-CENTRAL SONORA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM.
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...COSTA
RICA...PANAMA...EAST CUBA...JAMAICA...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN
BELOW 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TROUGHS AND THE ITCZ IN NORTHERN
BRASIL...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...EAST COLOMBIA...AND NORTHEAST PERU.
TO THE WEST...DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANIZING ALONG THE PANAMANIAN
TROUGH OVER WEST COLOMBIA AND INTO THE EAST PACIFIC...WEST OF
ECUADOR. ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER WEST COLOMBIA
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. WHILE IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA...INTO
ECUADOR...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FROM EASTERN COLOMBIA...TO
EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND WEST PARA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN AMAPA. ON THURSDAY...A TROUGH
ENTERING THE ANDEAN REGION IN COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND PERU...AS
WELL AS IN AMAZONAS-BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. WEST
ECUADOR AND WEST COLOMBIA...CAN EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
PANAMANIAN TROUGH...FAVORING MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. AMAPA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 60MM IS EXPECTED OVER AMAPA...AND
THE GUIANAS. AMAPA AND NORTH EAST PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. FROM WEST PARA TO CENTRAL AMAZONAS-BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM...WHILE WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL...INTO EAST COLOMBIA...AND
NORTHWEST PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. WEST COLOMBIA...INTO
WEST ECUADOR...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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