898
FXUS01 KWBC 131952
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 PM EDT WED MAR 13 2024
VALID 00Z THU MAR 14 2024 - 00Z SAT MAR 16 2024
...HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE SAN JUANS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON FRIDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT OVER CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT AND LONG-DURATION WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF HEAVY
SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SNOW EXPANDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINNING THURSDAY. A SECOND ROUND OF
HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS LATE THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BECOME HEAVY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SNOWFALL RATES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE (40-60%) IN THE FRONT RANGE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED
(GREATER THAN 90%) TO PRODUCE MORE THAN 1 FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FRONT RANGE, FOOTHILLS, SANGRE DE CRISTOS, AND SAN JUANS.
LOCALLY, 2-4 FEET OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE (20-30%).
THE STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35 MPH WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW AND SEVERELY RESTRICTED VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AND OTHER MOUNTAIN ROADS IN THE REGION.
TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE. EXPECT ROAD CLOSURES.
DISRUPTIONS TO INFRASTRUCTURE DUE TO POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.
A SECOND PHASE OF THE WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT
THE TERRAIN AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN COLORADO ROCKIES. SNOW
PROBABILITIES FOR 8 INCHES ARE MODERATE TO HIGH (GREATER THAN
50%). LOCALIZED TOTALS ABOVE A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MOREOVER, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
FURTHERMORE, OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXPAND ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA.
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON THURSDAY, THE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTH AND
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXPAND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
SIMILARLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THESE AREAS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
BY FRIDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASED TO A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ON FRIDAY.
ONCE AGAIN, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
ALSO, ON FRIDAY, AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST, RAIN MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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