703
FXCA20 KWBC 141211
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
810 AM EDT THU MAR 14 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 14/12UTC:
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER...WITH BRIEF ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUES TO BE THE FORECAST FOR PR/USVI OVER THE 5-DAY
PERIOD. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND EAST...DOMINATING THE CENTRAL TO
EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH COULD WEAKEN THE LOCAL WINDS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HAVE A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...PROMOTING STABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH COULD BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY TUESDAY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO WEAK TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL HAVE A RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...NEAT 80 KT ON SATURDAY.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING GRADUALLY TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR NORMAL THOUGH THE DAY...BUT PEAKING
THIS EVENING AT AROUND 1.6 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BE UP AND DOWN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM
AROUND 1.3 INCHES ON FRIDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT A
PEAK NEAR 1.7 INCHES COULD BE OBSERVED ON SATURDAY. THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ALSO SHOW THE PEAKS AND
VALLEYS OF THE MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SATURDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE MOST MOISTURE INTO THE MID
LEVELS...INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL RH VALUES THROUGH THE DAY.
CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE UP AND DOWN...FROM NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE STABILITY
EXPECTED IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER PR/USVI IS
FORECAST TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART...BUT BRIEF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTION
WOULD BE SHALLOW AND THE MAX AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST TO BE
UNDER 0.40 INCHES OR SO. THE 5-DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST
PR...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN PR...WITH NORTHEASTERN PR
BEING ON THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE...AND NORTHWESTERN PR BEING
ON THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE. NEAR 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PR...WHILE SOME AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PR
ARE FORECAST 0.10 INCHES OR LESS. VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE
NORTHERN USVI ARE FORECAST NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES...AND ST CROIX
IS FORECAST NEAR 0.25 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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