036
FXCA20 KWBC 141723
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
122 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 MAR 2024 AT 1730 UTC: ON THURSDAY...A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES...AND EXTENDS INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE CFS
MODEL IS FORECASTING THAT THE DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO IS
EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER UPON REVIEW OF SATELLITE PRODUCTS...IT IS
NOT VERY CLEAR HOW PRESENT THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIVERGENCE IS OVER
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR UNDULATION
OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE LOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE
REGION...TOTAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
ON THURSDAY...AND INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TO THE EAST...THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN CONTINUES TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MOISTURE PLUMES ADVECTED BY THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE
GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SIMILARLY...IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE PRESENCE OF LLJ IN THE TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY...NORTH BAJA
CALIFORNIA...CENTRAL GUATEMALA/EAST CHIAPAS...EAST NICARAGUA TO
PANAMA...AND THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...NORTH COAHUILA...CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN BELIZE...EAST COSTA RICA/NORTH PANAMA...AND
THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...NORTH COAHUILA...CENTRAL OAXACA...FROM EAST
CHIAPAS TO WEST HONDURAS/NORTH EL SALVADOR...HISPANIOLA...AND
COSTA RICA TO WEST PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN TROUGHS AND
THE ITCZ IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF THE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE PANAMANIAN
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...AND WEST OF ECUADOR WILL FAVOR
DEEP CONVECTION FROM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. ALOFT...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AND FAVOR MODERATE
AMOUNTS. ON THURSDAY...THE NORTH CHOCO REGION OF COLOMBIA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM DUE TO THE PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO ECUADOR...NORTH PERU...AND WEST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE AMAPA AND
EAST PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SCATTERED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND WEST
PARA. ON FRIDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SOUTH AMAPA...AND WEST PARA. SOUTH
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHWEST PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. WEST
COLOMBIA...WEST ECUADOR...AND EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GUIANAS. ON SATURDAY...INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH WILL FAVOR MODERATE AMOUNTS IN WEST
AND NORTH COLOMBIA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH INCREASED
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ALONG WEST
COLOMBIA. WIND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN ANDEAN REGION OF
COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ALONG THE ITCZ IN PARA AND
EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL...THE REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. NORTHERN
GUYANA...SOUTH VENEZUELA...SOUTH COLOMBIA...INTO NORTHEAST
PERU...AND EAST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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