628
FXUS01 KWBC 142001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024
VALID 00Z FRI MAR 15 2024 - 00Z SUN MAR 17 2024
...HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/HIGH PLAINS BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...A LONG-DURATION EVENT OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER-ELEVATION RAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE WEEKEND...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY
EVENING FURTHER INTO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST REGION ON FRIDAY,
CONTINUING IN TEXAS SATURDAY...
...MILD WEATHER CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN U.S.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WITH A COLD AIRMASS SETTLING IN
ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE FLOWING IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO VERY HEAVY SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. SNOW RATES UPWARDS OF 2"/HR WILL BRING SEVERAL MORE
INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1-2
FEET, LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2-4 FEET. GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING
SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS TO IMPOSSIBLE, WITH MANY OF
THE LOCAL INTERSTATES ALREADY CLOSED. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL WILL THEN SHIFT A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AS THE UPPER-LOW SETTLES IN OVERHEAD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WAVES OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BRING 12"+ OF SNOWFALL TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES INTO THIS
WEEKEND. LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SEE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW, THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED,
WITH RAIN ALSO SPREADING TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD
CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
TO THE EAST, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND HEAD OF A WAVY COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLINED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) FROM NORTH
TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS,
AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION
OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME SUPERCELL STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO CLUSTER INTO THE EVENING BRINGING MORE OF A LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT, THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ANY REMAINING DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS,
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO. A BROADER SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) IS IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE SOME MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION, A SOUTHERLY INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG WITH STORMS CLUSTERING/MOTIONS INCREASINGLY PARALLEL
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SOME VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THE RISK OF SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) OVERLAPPING
THE ENHANCED SEVERE RISK, AND CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
MID-SOUTH AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH THE COVERAGE
SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM INTO EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP THE SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD
PLENTIFUL, AND MAY RESULT IN THE BOUNDARY SLOWING SOMEWHAT AS IT
PROGRESSES, ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CLUSTERING/TRAINING ALONG THE FRONT. TWO SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WITHIN A BROAD MARGINAL RISK OVER THE REGION ARE IN PLACE
WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE COMBINATION
OF OVERLAPPING UPPER-LEVEL ENERGIES/STORM COVERAGE AND WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR SOME MORE INSTANCES OF SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA AND NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA. HOWEVER, COMPLEX MESOSCALE
DETAILS LEAD TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL THESE AREAS
COULD FURTHER SHIFT. SOME ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK FROM THE SPC
IN PLACE FOR THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID-ATLANTIC ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY MIX IN
NORTH OF THE FRONT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY CLEARING NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, BRINGING AN END TO SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR
THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, THE FRONT WILL LINGER WESTWARD THROUGH
PORTIONS OF TEXAS ALONG AND NEAR THE GULF COAST WESTWARD THROUGH
SOUTH TEXAS. YET ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
PLACE AS WIDESPREAD, HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS CLUSTER ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER INCREASINGLY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WHERE STORMS
OVERLAP WITH THE PRIOR DAYS' RAINFALL, CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING.
ELSEWHERE, A CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY EVENING WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CHANCES INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN
EARLY TASTE OF SPRING TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, PASSING FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FROM SOME OF THE MORE GREATER
ANOMALIES SEEN TODAY AS TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS WERE
UPWARDS OF 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LOCATIONS, SETTLING IN
CLOSER TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER-TROUGH IN PLACE. THE WEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE WEST (PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES)
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND SEE MORE MILD,
ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS.
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