865
FXCA20 KWBC 151225
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
825 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 15/12UTC:
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST...REACHING THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FURTHER
EAST...DOMINATING THE CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH
MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH COULD WEAKEN
THE LOCAL WINDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MAY FORM A COL
FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
HAVE A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...PROMOTING STABILITY. HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTS
ON A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
TUESDAY...THOUGH AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE A BIT TOO WEAK TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
SINCE MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THEN. A
BRIEF UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN LATE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT...NEAR 70 - 80 KT
FOLLOWING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ZONAL WESTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
IN THE UPPER LEVELS THEREAFTER INTO MIDWEEK.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...PEAKING
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT
AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE UP AND DOWN
STARTING ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BOTTOMING OUT
NEAR 1.2 INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 1.6
INCHES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...ONLY TO DECREASE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY...REACHING NEAR ONE INCH BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ALSO SHOW THE PEAKS AND
VALLEYS OF THE MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SATURDAY
THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE THE
PERIODS DAY WITH THE MOST MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS.
CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TODAY INTO SATURDAY...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT BY THE LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN
PR. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT STABLE AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED...THOUGH A VERY
ISOLATED AND BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT BE RULED OUT. TODAY AND
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE DAYS WITH THE MOST RAINFALL
COVERAGE...GRADUALLY IMPROVING WITH EACH DAY THEREAFTER. THE 5-DAY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0.75 TO 1.10 INCHES
ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST PR...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PR...WITH NORTHEASTERN PR BEING ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
RANGE...AND WESTERN PR BEING ON THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE. NEAR
0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR OF PR...WHILE SOME
AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PR ARE FORECAST 0.10 INCHES OR LESS.
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE NORTHERN USVI ARE FORECAST NEAR 0.25
TO 0.50 INCHES...AND ST CROIX IS FORECAST NEAR 0.10 TO 0.25
INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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