585
FXCA20 KWBC 151830
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EDT FRI MAR 15 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 15 MAR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: ON FRIDAY...AN
ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES INTO MEXICO...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE IS ENHANCING A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE UPPER AIR CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORING THE UNDULATION OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EXTENDING INTO
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA...AND INTO EASTERN TEXAS. ON FRIDAY...NORTHERN
COAHUILA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WHILE NORTH SONORA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...SCATTERED MAXIMA BELOW 20MM ARE EXPECTED. ON
SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTH USA/NORTH MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE FRONTS IN THE REGION IN
THE LOWER REGIONS. COAHUILA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND SCATTERED MAXIMA BELOW 15MM ARE EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY...THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO TAMAULIPAS...NUEVO LEON...AND
CENTRAL COAHUILA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE REST OF THE
MEXICO...CARIBBEAN BASIN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY INTO SUNDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE PROPAGATION OF TROUGHS IN THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
OVER NORTHERN BRASIL WILL ASSIST WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.
THE TRADE WINDS ARE COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST AND ARE FAVORING THE
MOVEMENT OF MOST OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH...OUTSIDE
OF THE FORECAST REGION. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF A TROUGH INTO THE
GUIANAS AND WEST PARA/AMAPA...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN WEST
PAR AND PORTIONS OF WEST AMAPA. IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO
NORTHWEST PERU...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
TROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND WEST ECUADOR. THE
ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
AND IT IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION. ON
SATURDAY...THE CONVECTION ALONG THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
WEST ECUADOR...THE TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. IN
NORTHERN BRASIL...ITCZ/NET INTERACTIONS WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION
WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM SOUTHERN AMAPA...TO EAST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AS INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED IN
THE REGION. WESTERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
SUNDAY...INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ANDEAN REGION IN
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...WEST ECUADOR...AND NORTHWEST PERU AND A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ALOFT...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN
AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND WEST PARA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SOUTHERN
AMAPA AND NORTH PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA ALONG THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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