765
FXUS01 KWBC 151947
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT FRI MAR 15 2024
VALID 00Z SAT MAR 16 2024 - 00Z MON MAR 18 2024
...HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPANDS ACROSS FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST STATES...
...MILD WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EAST
COAST...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH DESCENDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
ACCELERATE THROUGH TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST LEADING TO HEIGHTENED
SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATS THIS WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. TONIGHT, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (SOME
SEVERE) WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS TONIGHT,
WHILE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) EXTENDS FROM THERE OUT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WHERE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION
TO THAT, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (AT LEAST 15%) IS IN
EFFECT FOR THOSE SAME AREAS WHERE 3-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY
ACCUMULATE. THE SLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISKS
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS ON SATURDAY WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS WELL.
WHILE HEAVY SNOW DIMINISHES LATER TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, HEAVY SNOW WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS WEEKEND AND IS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
FOUR CORNERS REGION, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN WASATCH AND THE SAN JUANS, SNOW PROBABILITIES
FOR AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 12 INCHES ARE MODERATE TO HIGH (50-90%).
LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 2 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY, THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND JEMEZ MOUNTAINS. HEAVY SNOW RATES OF UP TO 2"/HR AND
GUSTY WINDS EXCEEDING 35MPH (LOCALLY HIGHER TO 50MPH) WILL CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN ROADS AND PASSES. THIS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TO AT TIMES
IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL, WITH ROAD CLOSURES LIKELY. DISRUPTIONS TO
INFRASTRUCTURE DUE TO POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROMOTE INCREASING HEIGHTS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SUPPLY AMPLE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE EAST COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER WHICH A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH AND
RETURN TEMPERATURES TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. THIS WEEKEND THOUGH,
HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UP AND DOWN THE COAST.
KEBEDE
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