576
FXUS01 KWBC 161955
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT SAT MAR 16 2024
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 17 2024 - 00Z TUE MAR 19 2024
...HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT LAKES;
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL
CREATE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE
HEAVIEST LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
U.P. OF MICHIGAN FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. A
SECOND AREA OF HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND FROM
LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION, SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, LIKEWISE, FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY.
MOREOVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY WILL ALSO CREATE SNOW
AND LOWER-ELEVATION RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST,
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, A SECOND FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN
TEXAS WILL MOVE OFF THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY. WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. FURTHER, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF HAIL, TWO
INCHES OR GREATER, OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON SUNDAY, THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DECREASES SLIGHTLY TO A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) ALONG THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOREOVER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL
STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENDS
BY MONDAY. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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