980
FXUS01 KWBC 171913
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 PM EDT SUN MAR 17 2024
VALID 00Z MON MAR 18 2024 - 00Z WED MAR 20 2024
...HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO;
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND FLORIDA...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM MAINE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, COMING
BACK ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST ON SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA BY
MONDAY EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST MOVES EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WILL PULL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO, AIDING IN THE PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF
TORNADOES AND HAIL.
ON MONDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENDS OVER THE GULF
COAST. HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OVER FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FLORIDA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, AND HAIL, WITH A MINIMAL THREAT OF
TORNADOES. BY TUESDAY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST WILL AID IN CREATING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND FROM THE
GREAT LAKES, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DOWNWIND FROM LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MOREOVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
PRODUCE SNOW AND LOWER-ELEVATION RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY.
FURTHERMORE, A SECOND FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL MOVE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, MOVING TO THE GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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