143
FXCA20 KWBC 181823
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 18 MAR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: ON MONDAY...A POTENT
DIVERGENT PULSE OF THE MJO IS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ENTERING WESTERN MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND SOUTH AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...AN ATMOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN...MEXICO...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND NORTH SOUTH
AMERICA. THE UPPER DIVERGENT CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION ARE
EXPECTED TO FAVOR CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IT IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
IN MEXICO....A CUT OFF LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
MONDAY. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...A POTENT RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MEXICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...FAVORING TRADE WIND INVERSION CAPS AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE REGION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH...OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED
STATES...JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMA...INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...AND BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL BY MONDAY EVENING. ON TUESDAY...THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...INTO
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS....CENTRAL CUBA...AND IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST
OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...INTO CUBA...AND LOSE DEFINITION IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE NORTH AND WEST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
FAVORING THE UNDULATION OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER TEXAS/NEW
MEXICO...FORMING A COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. ON
MONDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 50MM IN
VERACRUZ...FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM. TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...WHILE COAHUILA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN CHIAPAS...WEST CUBA...AND COSTA RICA/NORTH
PANAMA. THE NORTHERN BAHAMA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR MAXIMA AND A SLIGHT
RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OD 15-30MM IN SOUTH BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND
CAICOS...WHILE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH
A MODERATE RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. MAXIMA OF 15MM IS EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL VERACRUZ.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOUTH VERACRUZ...CHIAPAS...AND TABASCO
OF 15-25MM...ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
OVER HISPANIOLA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM. JAMAICA...AND COSTA
RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
BEGINS TO LOSE DEFINITION AND LOWER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED. HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...WHILE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EAST CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM. A SHIFT OF WIND FROM THE SOUTH WILL FAVOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG EAST MEXICO...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM FROM
NORTHERN COAHUILA...TO NORTH TAMAULIPAS...CENTRAL OAXACA...AND
CHIAPAS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
AND NORTHWEST PANAMA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE PASSING OF THE MJO DIVERGENT PHASE
WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
MONDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR WILL SEE CONVECTION ALONG
THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH...WHILE WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
WEST COLOMBIA...AND 25-50MM IN NORTHWEST ECUADOR. TO THE
EAST...INCREASED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND TROUGH
INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ IN AMAPA AND PARA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN THE AREA. COLOMBIA...EAST ECUADOR...AND NORTHWEST PERU
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE NORTH AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND
WEST PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...ALONG THE ITCZ/NET. ON
TUESDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF AN EASTERLY WAVE IN WEST PARA WILL MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM IN WEST PARA AND EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL. ALONG THE
PANAMANIAN TROUGH FROM THE DARIEN REGION IN PANAMA...TO WEST
ECUADOR...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. CENTRAL COLOMBIA IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...WEST AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND PERU. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED THROUGH THE TRADE WINDS
COMING FROM THE NORTH AND EAST INTO NORTHERN BRASIL AND PERU. IN
ADDITION...THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ
OVER EAST AMAZONAS...AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PARA AND
AMAZONAS. AMAPA WILL SEE INCREASED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM. TO THE WEST...WESTERN ECUADOR WILL SEE FAVORABLE FETCH
FROM THE WEST...WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE ALOFT...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH WILL
FAVOR UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH RISK OF MCS FORMATION. COLOMBIA AND
SOUTHERN ECUADOR COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SCATTERED MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN EAST COLOMBIA AND NORTH PERU.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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