943
FXUS01 KWBC 190742
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 19 2024 - 12Z THU MAR 21 2024
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS SNOWFALL EAST INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY...
...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MIDWEEK AND
PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY...
...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND WESTERN GULF COAST...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CROSSING OVER RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY, WHICH WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO, CANADA TOWARDS MAINE BY EARLY THURSDAY. GREATEST
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER EASTERN MAINE ON
THURSDAY, ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST TO ITS
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT NORTHERN VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND MAINE.
MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (40-70%) FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED ACROSS THIS REGION. GUSTY WINDS AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE SYSTEM'S WAKE, WITH HIGHS
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 30S AND 40S THROUGHOUT THE GREAT
LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST.
SNOW POTENTIAL ALSO RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A NEARBY STATIONARY
FRONT AND FAVORABLE JET STREAM DYNAMICS. FAR NORTHWEST MONTANA AND
THE YELLOWSTONE REGION CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO ADD UP TO OVER 4 INCHES. BY THURSDAY, A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY
FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW FROM PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, FAR NORTHERN IOWA, AND WISCONSIN. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWBANDS MAY SET UP, BUT RESIDENTS
SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND PREPARE FOR POTENTIALLY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY
EJECTS EASTWARD. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. BY THURSDAY, HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
FLOODING CONCERNS.
AS FAR AS THE TEMPERATURE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SHORT TERM TIME
PERIOD, A FROST/FREEZE THREAT REMAINS THIS MORNING FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 20S AND
30S. THIS COLD SNAP IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR AVERAGE BY THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. MEANWHILE,
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHWEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD BREAK DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS
THERMOMETER READINGS SOAR INTO THE 70S.
SNELL
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