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FXCA20 KWBC 191123
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
723 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 19/12UTC:
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF
THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COULD HAVE THE
MOST RAINFALL COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT UNDER HALF AN
INCH. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST...REACHING THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY THEN...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM THE WEST CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
INTO HISPANIOLA AS IT WEAKENS. BY THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST...GRADUALLY BECOMING
EASTERLY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL PLAY A ROLE ON THE
LOCATION OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR.
THE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH COULD MOVE
IN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL WITH A
WEAK RIDGE OR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONARY AND WEAKENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0.75 TO 1.0
INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST PR. PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PR
ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS NEAR 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES...THOUGH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PR. VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE USVI ARE
FORECAST 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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