063
FXCA20 KWBC 191825
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 19 MAR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: ON TUESDAY...A LONG
WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND EXTENDS
INTO WESTERN MEXICO. EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FAVORING THE
UNDULATION OF TROUGHS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY...AND ASSIST IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LEVEL FRONTS IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...FAVORING FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS FRONT DEVELOPS FROM
A PREVIOUS FRONT THAT WAS LOSING DEFINITION OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES. BY THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...INTO EXTREME NORTH
HISPANIOLA...CUBA....INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO EASTERN
TEXAS. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
SYSTEM...AND EXTEND INTO PUERTO RICO/VI ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THE
CONDITIONS WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...AS WELL AS
THE ARRIVAL OF A KELVIN WAVE INTO THE REGION...DIVERGENT MJO...AND
WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND INTO FLORIDA...THE
BAHAMAS...AND THE REST OF CUBA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND
MEXICO...EXPECT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE
MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS. ON TUESDAY...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO
THE TURKS AND CAICOS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM WITH THE PASSING
OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...THROUGH
OAXACA/CHIAPAS...AND INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION...EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER HISPANIOLA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM...WHILE THE SAME FRONT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 10MM IN
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EAST CUBA. FROM NORTHERN
COAHUILA TO NORTH TAMAULIPAS...EAST NICARAGUA...AND NORTHWEST
PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON THURSDAY...HISPANIOLA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE EAST CUBA...JAMAICA...AND PUERTO
RICO/VI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM...DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE OVER THE REGION. NUEVO
LEON/TAMAULIPAS...CHIAPAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA...COSTA RICA/NORTHWEST
PANAMA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE POTENT PULSE OF THE MJO WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE REGION AND ASSIST IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
REGION...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN BRASIL...AND PORTIONS OF
COLOMBIA...AND ECUADOR. INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM PASSING
TROUGHS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER NORTHERN BRASIL...WILL FAVOR
HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
DECREASE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY....WHILE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH BEGINS TO LOSE SOME
DEFINITION OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF SOUTH AMERICA. TO THE
WEST...THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH WILL BE FAVORING CONVECTION...WHILE
IT MEANDERS TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...WINDS FROM THE
WEST WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTRIES. THESE ARE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DEEP CONVECTION
WILL BE FAVOR WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST...ENHANCING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ON TUESDAY...FROM AMAPA TO EXTREME EAST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND NORTHEAST
ECUADOR...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. WEST COLOMBIA AND SOUTHWEST
ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IS EXPECTED IN VENEZUELA...AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND NORTHWEST PERU.
ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN NORTHWEST ECUADOR
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH RISK OF MCS FORMATION. AMAPA AND
PORTIONS OF PARA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FROM PARA TO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ECUADOR...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHWEST PERU CAN EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...DRYER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE
FROM SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL ECUADOR...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. NORTHERN COLOMBIA..AND NORTHERN BRASIL CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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