576
FXUS01 KWBC 200732
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
331 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2024
VALID 12Z WED MAR 20 2024 - 12Z FRI MAR 22 2024
...SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SPREADS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY...
...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND GULF COAST...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MATURING OVER EASTERN
MAINE EARLY THURSDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SNOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND, WHILE ALSO
REINFORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH
PROBABILITIES (80-90%) FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXIST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES
EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND UPSTATE NEW
YORK. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF VERMONT AND MAINE ON THURSDAY AS THE POTENT STORM SYSTEM
CREATES A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE FIRE WEATHER DANGER THROUGHOUT THE
MID-ATLANTIC. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF
VIRGINIA.
A SEPARATE WINTER STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF SNOW
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH SNOW BEGINNING TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT
WILL HELP TRIGGER THE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND SHIFT
SNOWFALL EASTWARD BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXIST ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA, WITH MEDIUM
TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (40-80%) EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA, INCLUDING SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
GREATER CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY, WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO 10-12 INCHES OF SNOW. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER
AWARE AND UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT LOCATION OF HEAVY SNOWBANDS.
ELSEWHERE, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SET TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, GULF COAST, AND PARTS OF THE WEST COAST. AN UPPER LOW
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY EJECT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. BY THURSDAY, RAIN COULD BECOME
HEAVY ENOUGH ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY, SPREADING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF COAST, AS WELL AS
EVENTUALLY FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, BOTH
THE SEVERE AND FLOODING THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
MARGINAL. FOR THE WEST COAST, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE COASTAL MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. AS THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS THE SIERRA ON FRIDAY NIGHT, HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SNELL
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