086
FXCA20 KWBC 201152
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
751 AM EDT WED MAR 20 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 20/12UTC:
A BROAD POLAR TROUGH SITS OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WITH
ITS BASE NEAR NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. THIS IS PRESSING AGINST A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A HIGH IN NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ASSPCOATED WITH THE POLAR TROUGH...A SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG 25N 65W INTO THE TURKS
ANC CAICOS. SOME CONVECTION IS FLARING UP ALONG THE FRONT WHILE
WIDEPREAD FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN PUERTO
RICO...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 30MM AND THE
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE ARE DOMINANT.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY...WHEN EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND MAXIMA NEAR 0.3
INCHES IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. AN INCREASE
IN THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO FRIDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SHEAR-LINE LIKE STRUCTURE. ON
THRUSDAY...THIS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES IN
MOST OF PUERTO RICO...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES
IS LIKELY IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST...GIVEN
ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND REGIME. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME EASTERLIES ON FRIDAY...TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES IN
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. YET...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STREGTHENING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...EXPECT A DECREASING TREND STARTING FRIDAY
EVENING.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS
PRESSURES DECREASE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...EXPECT THE
TRADES TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLIES BY SUNDAY. UNDER A CONTINUED
STABILIZING INFLUENCE BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACCCUMULATION LESS THAN 0.2 INCHES/DAY.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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