298
FXUS01 KWBC 202000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2024
VALID 00Z THU MAR 21 2024 - 00Z SAT MAR 23 2024
...SNOW SHOWERS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS; ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FORECAST IN PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...
...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SPREADS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY; STRONG WINTER STORM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...
...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND GULF COAST...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND,
PRODUCING PERIODS OF SNOWFALL WHILE ALSO REINFORCING LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE POTENTIAL
WINTER STORM IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ROUND OF SNOWFALL
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOCUSED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE, WHERE HIGH PROBABILITIES (80-90%) OF AT LEAST
4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOTED.
MEANWHILE, A SEPARATE WINTER STORM IS ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE A
SWATH OF SNOW BEGINNING TONIGHT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD DEVELOPS ALONG AN EMERGING FRONTAL WAVE, WHICH SHIFTS
EASTWARD BY TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4
INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA, WITH MEDIUM TO
HIGH PROBABILITIES (40-80%) EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA, INCLUDING SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA, WHERE A
SWATH OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. GREATER CHANCES
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHIFTS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES BY FRIDAY, WHERE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 10-12
INCHES OF SNOW. BEYOND THIS FIRST ROUND OF NORTHERN TIER SNOWFALL,
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE LOOKING INTO THIS WEEKEND AS
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST AS DETAILS CHANGE WITH THESE NEXT TWO DYNAMIC
SNOWFALL EVENTS.
ELSEWHERE, UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SET TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, GULF COAST, AND PARTS OF THE WEST COAST. AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS AS A STUBBORN UPPER-LOW EJECTS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW, RAIN COULD BECOME
HEAVY ENOUGH ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY, SPREADING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ENTIRE GULF COAST, AS WELL AS
EVENTUALLY FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER, BOTH
THE SEVERE AND FLOODING THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
MARGINAL. FOR THE WEST COAST, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE COASTAL MIDWEST
ON FRIDAY. AS THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS THE SIERRA ON FRIDAY NIGHT, HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
ASHERMAN/SNELL
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