759
FXHW40 KWBC 211231
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU MAR 21 2024
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID APRIL 2024
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES WERE NEAR-AVERAGE OVER THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND) DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
FOR JANUARY THROUGH FEBRUARY 2024, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
-LIHUE AIRPORT 3.52 INCHES (55 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HONOLULU AIRPORT 2.94 INCHES (78 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-KAHULUI AIRPORT 5.77 INCHES (131 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
-HILO AIRPORT 8.98 INCHES (50 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS AROUND KAUAI,
OAHU, AND MAUI THROUGH APRIL 2024 AND NEAR AVERAGE SSTS FOR THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH APRIL 2024. BASED PRIMARILY ON THESE SST FORECASTS, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED TO BE RELATIVELY WARM COMPARED TO NORMAL FOR
KAUAI, OAHU AND MAUI, WHILE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE BIG ISLAND IN APRIL 2024. FOR THE APRIL 2024
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED FOR ALL
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN, AS INDICATED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS, AND
CONSISTENT WITH THE EL NINO CONDITIONS OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO EC 72.6 0.7 B60 7.4 8.9 11.2
KAHULUI A40 74.1 0.6 B60 0.5 0.9 1.3
HONOLULU A40 76.3 0.5 B55 0.3 0.5 0.7
LIHUE A40 74.0 0.6 B55 1.6 1.9 2.8
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID AMJ 2024 - AMJ 2025
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONUS AND ALASKA FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE ENSO OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE
CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK. EL NIñO CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BUT REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES EXPANDED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
HAVE REACHED THE SURFACE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES
WERE EASTERLY OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN AND DATE LINE, WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE EASTERLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. ENHANCED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WERE OBSERVED NEAR THE DATE
LINE, WHILE SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WERE EVIDENT AROUND
INDONESIA AND THE PHILIPPINES. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS OVER THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH EL NIñO CONDITIONS. THERE IS A
83% CHANCE OF TRANSITION FROM EL NINO TO ENSO-NEUTRAL DURING APRIL-JUNE 2024,
WITH INCREASING ODDS, ABOUT 62% CHANCE, OF LA NIñA DEVELOPING IN SUMMER 2024.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR KAUAI,
OAHU AND MAUI AND EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE BIG ISLAND IN AMJ (APRIL-MAY-JUNE) 2024,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND THE
CONSTRUCTED ANALOG (CA) TOOL. THE FORECAST SIGNAL WEAKENS AT LONGER LEADS,
THEREFORE EC IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII BEGINNING IN MJJ (MAY-JUNE-JULY) 2024 AND
EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST OVER THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND) FROM AMJ
(APRIL-MAY-JUNE) 2024 TO ASO (AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER) 2024, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODEL FORECASTS. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS, EC IS
INDICATED OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING IN FALL
(SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER) 2024 THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2024 EC 72.9 0.5 B60 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2024 EC 74.0 0.4 B60 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2024 EC 75.2 0.4 B60 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2024 EC 76.1 0.4 B50 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2024 EC 76.4 0.4 B40 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2024 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2024 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2024 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2025 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2025 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2025 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2025 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2025 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2024 A40 74.3 0.5 B60 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2024 EC 76.0 0.5 B60 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2024 EC 77.7 0.4 B55 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2024 EC 79.0 0.4 B50 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2024 EC 79.4 0.4 B40 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2024 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2024 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2024 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2025 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2025 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2025 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2025 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2025 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2024 A40 76.3 0.4 B60 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2024 EC 78.2 0.4 B50 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2024 EC 79.9 0.4 B50 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2024 EC 81.3 0.4 B45 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2024 EC 81.7 0.4 B40 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2024 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2024 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2024 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2025 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2025 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2025 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2025 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2025 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
AMJ 2024 A40 74.2 0.5 B60 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2024 EC 76.0 0.5 B50 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2024 EC 77.7 0.4 B50 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2024 EC 79.0 0.3 B45 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2024 EC 79.4 0.3 B40 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2024 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2024 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2024 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2025 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2025 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2025 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2025 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2025 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU APR 18, 2024.
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