096
FXCA20 KWBC 221810
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 PM EDT FRI MAR 22 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 22 MAR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: A POTENT MJO DIVERGENT
PULSE IS SITUATED OVER MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ACCOMPANIED BY A
TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVE. THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THEIR PASSAGE IS FAVORING INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION...PRIMARILY
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA ON FRIDAY. IN THE REGION...A DEEP
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER THE EAST UNITED
STATES AND EXTENDS INTO CUBA AND THE NORTH CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY
EVENING. WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH...FRONTAL SYSTEMS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE UNDULATING OVER ALABAMA/NORTH FLORIDA...EXTENDING INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO....AND ENTERING TAMAULIPAS AND THE NORTHERN
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WITH A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDING INTO
CUBA BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...LOW LEVEL JETS OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND CUBA
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND FAVOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED
COUNTRIES. IN ADDITION...SST ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AROUND
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...FAVORING THE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS RELATIVELY
FAST...ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 60-125MM IN THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE BAHAMAS. THEY WILL SEE ELEVATED RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER. IN
WEST-CENTRAL CUBA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WITH AN ELEVATED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. WEST CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AND
AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS
AND CAICOS...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH A MODERATE RISK OF
SQUALLY WEATHER. SIMILAR AMOUNTS AND SEVERITY IS EXPECTED IN
EAST-CENTRAL CUBA. OTHER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN CAN
EXPECT RAINFALL DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS. EAST HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
WHILE THE REST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. FROM SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ TO EAST OAXACA/WEST CHIAPAS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
OTHER AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. ON
SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION TO THE
EAST...AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE PEAK HEAVY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 60-100MM...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...BOTH REGIONS WITH ELEVATED RISK OF SQUALLY
WEATHER. WEST-CENTRAL CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH RISK
OF ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER.WEST CUBA IS EXPECTED TO SEE MAXIMA OF
20-35MM WITH ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. EAST-CENTRAL CUBA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. FROM THE BAHAMAS...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO
CENTRAL CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL CHIAPAS/EAST
OAXACA. FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM....WHILE OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM. SIMILAR ISOLATED AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN. BY SUNDAY...THE INITIAL
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS/TURKS AND
CAICOS....INTO EXTREME NORTHERN HAITI...JAMAICA...BORDER BETWEEN
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA...AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TOWARDS
CENTRAL GUATEMALA. A SECONDARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC....BUT PRECIPITATION
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS/TURKS
AND CAICOS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM WITH MODERATE RISK OF
SQUALLY WEATHER...WHILE EAST CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM...WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION...IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...PUERTO RICO/VI...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. IN NORTHWEST MEXICO...A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA. NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. NORTH SONORA/CHIHUAHUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM.
IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...THE PASSING OF TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ AND
THE INTERACTIONS WITH THE UPPER DIVERGENT CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION OVER IN NORTH PERU...SOUTH
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN BRASIL. ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
TO NORTHERN BRASIL FROM TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT PASSED OVER CENTRAL BRASIL OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG ITS PERIPHERY IN NORTHERN BRASIL.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONVERGE FOR DEEP CONVECTION ON SUNDAY. TO
THE WEST...CONVECTION ALONG THE PANAMANIAN TROUGH...AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ENTER WEST ECUADOR AND SOUTH WEST COLOMBIA WILL
ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE AREAS AND MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ON
FRIDAY...NORTHERN PERU AND EAST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...WHILE SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. NORTH AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WEST
AMAZONAS-BRASIL...AND FROM AMAPA TO EXTREME EAST AMAZONAS-BRASIL
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...CONVERGENCE
OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER EAST PERU...AND
AMAZONAS-BRASIL WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FROM SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA...TO WEST ECUADOR...AND AMAPA-BRASIL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. BY SUNDAY...MOST OF PARA AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. WEST COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. CENTRAL COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN AMAPA AND NORTHWEST PARA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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