117
FXUS01 KWBC 241958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2024
VALID 00Z MON MAR 25 2024 - 00Z WED MAR 27 2024
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM
SUNDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WILL BE HIGH-IMPACT
AND AN EXTENSIVE SYSTEM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (GREATER THAN 70%) OF AT LEAST EIGHT INCHES
OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS IMPACTS FROM HEAVY
SNOW, SNOW LOAD, AND WIND. MOREOVER, HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WIND
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LIKEWISE, HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND
ROAD CLOSURES ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY, WET SNOW ON TREES AND POWER LINES MAY DAMAGE TREES AND
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
FURTHERMORE, STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ON SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN
POWER OUTAGES, BLOWING DUST WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY, DIFFICULT
TRAVEL, AND PROPERTY DAMAGE AS HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER, WITH THE HIGH WIND,
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS
THE FRONT AND DRYLINE MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES, SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ON MONDAY, THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
CREATING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF EF2
TO EF5 TORNADOS OVER THE AREA.
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
BY TUESDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES SLIGHTLY
TO A MARGINAL RISK OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH A SECOND
AREA OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST.
SIMILARLY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM, UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW,
LOWER-ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY, THE PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY ENDS OVER CALIFORNIA.
HOWEVER, A SURGE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST WILL AID IN
PRODUCING RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING. THE ENERGY WILL
ALSO CREATE COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHERâ€ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOREOVER,
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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