117   
FXUS01 KWBC 241958  
PMDSPD  
  
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
358 PM EDT SUN MAR 24 2024  
  
VALID 00Z MON MAR 25 2024 - 00Z WED MAR 27 2024  
  
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
AND UPPER MIDWEST...  
  
...THERE IS A SIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE  
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND OVER  
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON TUESDAY...  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY ON MONDAY...  
  
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL  
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM  
SUNDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WILL BE HIGH-IMPACT  
AND AN EXTENSIVE SYSTEM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY  
WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER  
MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.  
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (GREATER THAN 70%) OF AT LEAST EIGHT INCHES  
OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA  
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.  
  
IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS IMPACTS FROM HEAVY  
SNOW, SNOW LOAD, AND WIND. MOREOVER, HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WIND  
WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD  
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LIKEWISE, HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AND  
ROAD CLOSURES ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG WINDS  
AND HEAVY, WET SNOW ON TREES AND POWER LINES MAY DAMAGE TREES AND  
CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT  
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES.  
  
FURTHERMORE, STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ON SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN  
POWER OUTAGES, BLOWING DUST WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY, DIFFICULT  
TRAVEL, AND PROPERTY DAMAGE AS HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE  
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER, WITH THE HIGH WIND,  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY OVER THE  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  
  
MEANWHILE, THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM EXTENDS FROM  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO  
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. AS  
THE FRONT AND DRYLINE MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES, SHOWERS AND SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND  
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.  
  
ON MONDAY, THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
CREATING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS  
ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A  
FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF EF2  
TO EF5 TORNADOS OVER THE AREA.  
  
IN ADDITION, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN  
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.  
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED  
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,  
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
  
BY TUESDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES SLIGHTLY  
TO A MARGINAL RISK OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH A SECOND  
AREA OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST.  
  
SIMILARLY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN  
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST. THEREFORE, THE WPC  
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER  
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED  
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING,  
WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.  
  
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM, UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW,  
LOWER-ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL EXTEND FROM  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY, THE PRECIPITATION  
MOSTLY ENDS OVER CALIFORNIA.  
  
HOWEVER, A SURGE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST WILL AID IN  
PRODUCING RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING. THE ENERGY WILL  
ALSO CREATE COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHERâ€ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOREOVER,  
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHERN  
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES  
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.    
  
ZIEGENFELDER  
  
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
  
  
 
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