020
FXCA20 KWBC 251235
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
835 AM EDT MON MAR 25 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 25/12UTC:
DURING THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH DRIER. THIS IS DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT CURRENTLY HAS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY...BUT THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TROUGH THE DAY...CAUSING
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL. BY TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF PR/USVI...AND
THUS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL START TO DECREASE QUICKLY.
STARTING ON TUESDAY...THE SFC LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL CAUSE DRY AIR TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE DRY AIR WILL BRING THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY EVENING...PREVAILING
BETWEEN 0.8 AND 1 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS AN AXIS JUST EAST OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...AND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THAT SAID...THE SFC
TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY.
THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DAY
WITH MOST RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR
TODAY...WHILE 0.25 TO AROUND 0.50 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
USVI. TUESDAY WOULD BE DRIER...UNDER 0.50 INCHES FORECAST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PR AND BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.40 FOR THE USVI. WEDNESDAY
ONWARD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS
FORECAST. THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS BETWEEN 1.5
TO 2 INCHES FOR NORTHERN PR...WITH GRADUALLY LESS RAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE AROUND 0.50 INCHES ARE FORECAST. THE USVI ARE
FORECAST BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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