566
FXCA20 KWBC 251829
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2024
FORECAST BULLETIN 25 MAR 2024 AT 1830 UTC: SINCE THE MIDDLE OF
LAST WEEK...A POTENT DIVERGENT PULSE OF THE MJO ACCOMPANIED BY
TROPOSPHERIC KELVIN WAVES WERE LOCATED OVER THE FORECAST REGION
AND IT IS CONTINUING INTO THIS WORK WEEK. ACCORDING TO THE CFS
FORECASTS FOR THE MJO...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM
THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ON MONDAY...A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO...PROVIDING SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER THE CENTRAL SONORA. THIS AREA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING A POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN...A POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR...EXTENDING TO HISPANIOLA. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...MOISTURE CONVERGE DUE TO WESTERLIES ADVECTING MOISTURE
ALONG THE GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION AND WESTERN COSTA RICA WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA BELOW 15MM. OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES...A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES...AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS
FAVORING RAINFALL OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO...AND JUST SOUTH OH
HISPANIOLA...LOSING DEFINITION OVER WEST CUBA. HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO/VI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. DUE TO THE MOISTURE
IN THE TRADE WINDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF MEXICO...EXCEPT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO SEE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND REACHING SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. FROM WESTERN COSTA RICA TO
SOUTHWEST PANAMA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
..JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO.
AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST HAITI.
A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
ANTILLES...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. FROM PUERTO RICO...TO
NORTHERN DOMINICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE SOUTH
HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 10MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...IN EASTERN MEXICO...THE DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED IN
VERACRUZ. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM YUCATAN...TO
BELIZE...AND INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. WESTERN COSTA RICA...AND WEST
PANAMA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
ATLANTIC CONTINUES EAST AND IT IS EXPECTED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AS NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING DRY AIR ON MONDAY...WHILE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE ALSO PUSHING THE ITCZ FURTHER SOUTH INTO BRASIL. WEST
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST ECUADOR ARE FORECAST TO SEE CONVECTION DUE
TO THE WESTERLY WINDS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND
FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. THIS
REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. INTO SOUTHERN ECUADOR...NORTH
PERU...AND SOUTHERN AMAZONAS-BRASIL AND PARA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. IN COLOMBIA...AND THE SOUTHERN GUIANAS...EXPECT SCATTERED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON TUESDAY...AN EASTERLY SHIFT OF WIND
DIRECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL FAVOR THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE ITCZ...FAVORING NORTHERLY MOVEMENT OF THE ITCZ INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PARA AND AMAZONAS-BRASIL. FROM THE SOUTHERN
GUIANAS...INTO AMAPA...AND PARA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST COLOMBIAÂTO NORTHWEST
ECUADOR AS WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND FAVOR
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM ARE EXPECTED FROM COLOMBIA...NORTH PERU...AND INTO
AMAZONAS-BRASIL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE ITCZ IS EXPECTED OVER
AMAZONAS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SOUTH COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWEST ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. GENERALIZED
SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION.Â
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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