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FXCA20 KWBC 261222
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
822 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 26/12UTC:
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO START TODAY...WITH DRY AIR OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...CAUSING
MOISTURE TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THAT SAID...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PR AND THE THE USVI DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE MOVING EAST AND AWAY OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH DRIER WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN
IN THE FORECAST. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT CURRENTLY HAS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW JUST
EAST OF THE USVI...AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST AS IT WEAKENS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OF PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE SFC LOW
DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CAUSE
DRY AIR ADVECTION TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING TO NEAR
ONE INCH BY THIS EVENING...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL. THE DRY AIR THAT
IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BOTTOMING OUT AT AROUND 0.8
INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. ON
SATURDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER COULD INCREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE BY SATURDAY EVENING.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS FROM TODAY ONWARD...BUT A WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
COULD BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. THE
5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75
INCHES FOR SOUTHEASTERN PR. NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ARE FORECAST
FOR SECTORS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST PR AS WELL AS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE USVI. BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES ARE
FORECAST FOR WESTERN PR.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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