915
FXUS01 KWBC 272000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT WED MAR 27 2024
VALID 00Z THU MAR 28 2024 - 00Z SAT MAR 30 2024
...RAINY, STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY, LINGERING IN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEST, WITH A LATE SEASON ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER IMPACTING CALIFORNIA FRIDAY...
..WARMING TREND BEGINS OVER CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AS
A PAIR OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA WHERE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP
TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND STORM CONVERGE/INTENSITY. A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SOME
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BEGIN
TO CLEAR THE COAST FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS
THE LEAD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC, LINGERING LONGEST IN NEW
ENGLAND. HERE, AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
WILL KEEP MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME
OF THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY ALONG THE COAST,
LEADING TO SOME AREAL FLOOD CONCERNS WHEN COMBINED WITH SNOWMELT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME A
BIT GUSTY FRIDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE.
AREAS OF LOWER ELEVATION COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION/MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, GENERALLY SPREADING FURTHER SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AS
WELL AS FOR THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN PLACE.
A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY, BRINGING AN ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER DIRECTED AT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL WILL PICK UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING ALONG UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE TRANSVERSE
RANGES, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE, AS
A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR
TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE, SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION INTO CANADA. A
SHORTWAVE FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE, SOME CHILLY MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID-30S ARE FORECAST THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE, WITH FROST/FREEZE-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN
PLACE FOR NEWLY GREENING SENSITIVE VEGETATION. INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING FOLLOWING THE SYSTEM OVER THE EAST COAST AND
AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING WARMER, ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BROADLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY,
AND INTO THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN EITHER AROUND OR BELOW AVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST
AND ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN
PLACE.
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