003
FXUS01 KWBC 280718
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2024
VALID 12Z THU MAR 28 2024 - 12Z SAT MAR 30 2024
...RAINY, STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH
TODAY, LINGERING IN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEST, WITH A LATE SEASON ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER IMPACTING CALIFORNIA FRIDAY...
..WARMING TREND BEGINS OVER CENTRAL U.S. TODAY
TWO SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST TODAY, WITH THE LEADING FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND FRONT SLOWING
APPROACHING THE COAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY
ALONG THE EAST COAST BUT TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE
LEADING FRONT EXITS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC AND COASTAL NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE HIGHEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR THIS AREA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS JUST EAST OF THE REGION.
COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW RAIN TO SWITCH TO
WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR
INLAND AREAS. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY IN THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
LOW ELEVATION RAIN WILL IMPACT THE REGION, AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AS WELL AS
FOR THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND REACH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL AIM A PLUME OF MOISTURE (AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER) AT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY
FLASH FLOODING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/4) FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG TERRAIN WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
RAINFALL TOTALS AND COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES FLOODING.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE CHILLY, DROPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID-30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, AND
FROST/FREEZE-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR
NEWLY GREENING SENSITIVE VEGETATION. INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER WILL BRING WARMER, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY, TO THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND MIDWEST ON FRIDAY, AND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION AND FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
DOLAN
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