071
FXCA20 KWBC 281222
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
822 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 28/12UTC:
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FAIR WEATHER TO
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
HISPANIOLA BY FRIDAY EVENING...AS IT MOVES EAST...THEN REACHING PR
BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH MOISTURE PEAKING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.
THE DRY AIR MOVING IN TODAY INTO FRIDAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 0.7 AND 1.0 INCHES. STARTING LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY...AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES PR. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING NEAR 1.6 INCHES.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MEANDER OVER THE WEST CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS
WEEKEND...WITH ITS AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
PR/USVI OVERNIGHT FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH WINDS NEAR 90KT.
THE MID LEVELS COULD ALSO HAVE A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN IN THE WEEKEND WITH MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING AS WELL.
THE TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS COINCIDES WITH THE UPPER
LEVELS...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS COULD BE OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 0.50 TO 0.75
INCHES FOR NORTH AND EASTERN PR. NEAR 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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