685
FXUS01 KWBC 281935
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
334 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024
VALID 00Z FRI MAR 29 2024 - 00Z SUN MAR 31 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEST, WITH A LATE SEASON ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER IMPACTING CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND...
..PRECIPIATION CHANCES CONTINUE FOR NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
...WARMING TREND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. INTO THE
WEEKEND...
HIGHER ELEVATION/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER ELEVATION
COASTAL/VALLEY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY EVENING
AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION, EVENTUALLY STALLING, AND UNDERNEATH ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY FURTHER INLAND,
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WERE SOME HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER
ELEVATION SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THEN, ALONG THE WEST COAST, AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/DEEPENING CLOSED LOW AND THE
APPROACH OF A STRONGER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL HELP USHER IN A LATE
SEASON INFLUX OF HIGHER MOISTURE/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING BY LATE FRIDAY. THE BEST OVERLAP
OF MOISTURE AND ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INITIALLY BE ALONG THE
TRANSVERSE RANGES, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/4) IS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW INCHES OF
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY, EXPANDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PENINSULAR RANGES, WITH
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IN EFFECT AS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, ON TOP OF
INCREASINGLY SATURATED CONDITIONS, WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MORE
INSTANCES OF FLOODING. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AND SPREADING INTO THE LOWER
COLORADO BASIN BY SATURDAY, BUT THE FLOOD THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN
LOWER FOR THESE REGIONS FOR NOW. SOME HEAVIER SNOW IS ALSO
FORECAST FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
IN THE EAST, SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO COME TO AN
END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES AWAY FROM THE COAST. RAIN, HEAVY AT
TIMES, WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFFSHORE AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN. WHILE THE RAIN WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
INTENSE, INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH SOME
HIGHER WATER LEVELS DUE TO ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT/RUNOFF EXPECTED.
THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK IN EFFECT, THOUGH SOME THREAT MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY FOR
DOWNEAST MAINE. FURTHER INLAND, SOME SNOW WILL MIX IN, WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE. PRECIPIATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
BRING A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY, WITH SOME INCREASING CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER
EAST, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY ALONG
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST. INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME
MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AS WELL AS SOME THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES BY SATURDAY EVENING.
AN EXPANDING AREA OF WARMER, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY, FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER
OHIO VALLEY, AS UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
CHILLY MORNING LOWS INTO THE 30S ARE FORECAST FOR THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY MORNING, WITH FROST
ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE BROADER
WARM-UP WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND BELOW AVERAGE
AND CHILLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST,
PARTICULARLY FOR CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE.
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