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FXCA20 KWBC 291231
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2024
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI MAR 29/12UTC:
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL TODAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH HISPANIOLA BY THIS EVENING...AS IT
MOVES EAST...THEN REACHING PR BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH A SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC BEHIND THE FRONT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH MOISTURE
PEAKING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS DRIER THAN IT HAD BEEN SUGGESTING PREVIOUSLY...WITH
ITS INCREASE IN MOISTURE PEAKING WITHIN THE NORMAL LEVELS. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND.
THE DRY AIR MOVING IN TODAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9 INCHES. STARTING
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY...AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES PR. THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTS NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING ON SATURDAY
EVENING BUT REMAINING NEAR 1.2 AND 1.4 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ITS AXIS OVER
HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
PR/USVI A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH 250 HPA WINDS NEAR
80KT STARING ON SUNDAY MORNING...THEN NEAR 95KT BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MID LEVELS WILL ALSO HAVE A WEAK
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING AS WELL. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS COULD BE OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS MONDAY
NIGHT.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NEAR 0.50 TO 1 INCH FOR
NORTH AND EASTERN PR...WITH MAX VALUES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
RANGE NEAR THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE. NEAR 0.25 TO AROUND 0.60
INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. BETWEEN
0.10 AND 0.30 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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