535
FXUS01 KWBC 302001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SAT MAR 30 2024
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 31 2024 - 00Z TUE APR 02 2024
...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOOD RISK FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA...
...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY...
...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING
THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST AS A DEEP
UPPER-TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSH INLAND
ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD, REDUCING THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL
2/4) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LA BASIN/EASTERN TRANSVERSE RANGES
SOUTH THROUGH THE PENINSULAR RANGES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHERE
THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME INSTANCES OF FLOODING
GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM THE PRIOR DAYS' RAINFALL.
SOME MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES MAY ALSO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY
BEFORE THE RAIN FULLY TAPERS OFF. ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH AN ISOLATED FLOOD RISK WILL STRETCH INTO THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AND INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, LOWER ELEVATION RAIN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE
EXPECTED MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWEST, AND
ROCKIES SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST FOR SOME OF THE
REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES, PARTICULARLY FROM THE SIERRA EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, WITH SOME WINTER STORM WARNINGS/WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
IN PLACE. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER FOLLOWING
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT. PRECIPIATION CHANCES SHOULD COME DOWN THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER-TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL HELP TO
STRENGTHEN/CONSOLIDATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG A WAVY, QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AREAS OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO A WINTRY MIX TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE PRESENCE OF MOIST,
UPSLOPE FLOW. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE BLACK HILLS. THEN, ON
MONDAY, THE FOCUS SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A DRY
LINE AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
INCREASING MOISTURE/BUOYANCY AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING DEEP AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS OUTLINED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES EXISTS. A
BROADER SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS. IN
ADDITION, THE EXPECTATION FOR REPEATED STORMS WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE AS FLOW RUNS PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
PROMPTED AN OVERLAPPING SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE
THREAT FOR SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
GREATEST FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. VERY GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WEST
OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE ALSO
PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR SUNDAY, LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY.
FURTHER EAST, INCREASING STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON MONDAY FOLLOWING AN
ADDITIONAL DAY OF SOUTHERLY MOIST GULF FLOW. A BROADER SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF LARGE
HAIL AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A POTENTIALLY GREATER THREAT
INTO MONDAY EVENING AS STORMS FROM THE WEST OVER THE PLAINS GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN ORGANIZED LINE AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
SOME THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ALSO EXISTS, THOUGH THE EXTENT TO
WHICH REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED BY
BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY, HARDER TO PREDICT
AT THIS TIME FRAME.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL TEND TO BE WARMER/ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY, SOUTH OF THE NOTED
FRONTAL SYSTEM, AND COOLER/BELOW AVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN PARTICULAR FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S, AND SOME 90S FORECAST
INTO TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, MAINLY IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S, AND MUCH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH
MOSTLY 60S EXPECTED.
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